Here's an open question.
In favor of Mubarak:
- Mubarak is safely bunkered.
- He's realigned his government to be closer to the military.
- People are concerned about law and order (many want the government to resume operations).
- The Egyptian army is keeping government buildings safe and violence/looting to a minimum (which means that Mubarak's bunker could be safe).
- He successfully de-escalated the conflict by withdrawing the police.
- The police are starting to re-emerge.
- The US government is unwilling to help force Mubarak out (hedging their bets).
He wins if the protest evaporates.
In favor of the open source protest:
- It is open source and still enjoys a strongly plausible promise.
- It continues to generate crowds and a huge gathering is planned (for Tuesday).
- The people aren't afraid of the government anymore (fence sitters are likely to turn out).
- Leaders are starting to emerge (open source leaders that are able to articulate the demand of the protest: Mubarak must leave).
- The military is neutral. It is unlikely to turn against the crowd or fire on it.
- The police/interior ministry troops were badly beaten. They are likely demoralized.
- The US government has communicated it will not tolerate wholesale violence against the people.
The protest wins if Mubarak leaves.
Which side will win?