Monday, January 31, 2011

EGYPT: Who Wins? Mubarak or the Protest?

EGYPT: Who Wins? Mubarak or the Protest?: "

Here's an open question.

In favor of Mubarak:

  • Mubarak is safely bunkered.

  • He's realigned his government to be closer to the military.

  • People are concerned about law and order (many want the government to resume operations).

  • The Egyptian army is keeping government buildings safe and violence/looting to a minimum (which means that Mubarak's bunker could be safe).

  • He successfully de-escalated the conflict by withdrawing the police.

  • The police are starting to re-emerge.

  • The US government is unwilling to help force Mubarak out (hedging their bets).

He wins if the protest evaporates.

In favor of the open source protest:

  • It is open source and still enjoys a strongly plausible promise.

  • It continues to generate crowds and a huge gathering is planned (for Tuesday).

  • The people aren't afraid of the government anymore (fence sitters are likely to turn out).

  • Leaders are starting to emerge (open source leaders that are able to articulate the demand of the protest: Mubarak must leave).

  • The military is neutral. It is unlikely to turn against the crowd or fire on it.

  • The police/interior ministry troops were badly beaten. They are likely demoralized.

  • The US government has communicated it will not tolerate wholesale violence against the people.

The protest wins if Mubarak leaves.

Which side will win?


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